COVID-19 Snapshot: August 12 Update

PAR’s Analysis on Impact on Age Groups

1,179 New Cases | 43 Deaths

To access PAR’s COVID-19 Portal Visit our website: Here
New cases and testing positivity show signs of improvement today, however deaths have increased. While trends are heading in the right direction incidence levels are still high particularly in certain regions such as Lafayette. Lafayette now shows a decreasing trend of new cases over the past 14 days along with all other regions. Only 3.9% of tests are positive, the lowest since mid-June.  
The graphs in this report show the number of new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14- day period, which is a method used by the state. By calculating the cases according to population in this way, the results from region to region are easier to compare to determine the severity of the outbreak. 
To view all regional trendline graphics click here: Link
14 Day Look-Back
PAR uses an average of new cases over a three-day period to smooth out irregularities that could be related to reporting inconsistencies. (LDH also uses multiple-day averaging.) Then, a statistically derived trendline – in the form of a straight line — is fitted to the data to gauge whether cases are increasing, decreasing or have reached a plateau, according to the CDC definition for each.
COVID-19 Impact on Age Groups:(click to enlarge)
As children return to school this month, PAR chose to focus today’s Snapshot on age-related COVID data. This will set a baseline to gauge any trends over the coming weeks. The first graph shows the percentage breakdown of total cases by age category. This shows that 18 to 29 year olds had a surge in cases in mid-June, though that has recently leveled off at around 22% of total reported cases. Cases for those under 18 have been climbing steadily since the beginning of May but also seemed to have leveled off at about 9% of total cases. Given that the number of tests administered to each age group is not publicly available it may be possible that some of the increase among the young may be due to an increase in testing.
The Louisiana Department of Health just recently started tracking COVID outbreaks by schools with only 3 outbreaks resulting in 17 cases. As classes get underway all citizens should keep an eye on these numbers to see how effective social distancing and other practices are at containing any surges related to schools being reopened.
When COVID deaths in Louisiana are broken down by age the data trend is remarkable for its stability. After some fluctuations early in the pandemic, the proportions do not change much. Deaths by those 70 and over comprise around 68% of all deaths, while those aged 60-69 make up an additional 18%. Younger categories have much fewer deaths. Combined, those under 18 and those 18-29 account for 0.5% of deaths.
However, these figures are based only on known cases. Some studies indicate that the number of people who have carried the new coronavirus is far greater than the number who have taken the test and shown a positive result. An unknown but potentially large number of people have been infected but are asymptomatic and have not been tested.
To access PAR’s COVID-19 Portal Visit our website: Here

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